The dry bulk market is the segment of shipping that gets the least coverage in the general business press, principally because the cargo — iron ore, coal, grain, bauxite, minor bulks — is less photogenic than the boxes that move on the container trades and the products move at scale on the tanker trades. The market is also less concentrated, with a more fragmented owner-operator structure and a less prominent set of major customer relationships than the container trades. That makes it harder to write about, but the operational and commercial dynamics on dry bulk are some of the more interesting in shipping right now.
This piece works through what the dry bulk market has been doing through 2025 and into 2026, what is driving the better-than-expected rate performance, and what the chartering desks across the principal segments are actually seeing. The aim is the kind of segment-by-segment reporting that the dry bulk market warrants and that the general press rarely produces.
The macro picture and why it should have produced softer rates
The macro factors that drive dry bulk demand have been mixed through 2025. Chinese steel production has been working through a structural adjustment as the property-sector demand has softened. Indian iron ore demand has been growing but not at a pace that fully offsets the Chinese moderation. Coal flows have been affected by the energy transition policies in major importer countries, with some markets showing structural decline while others continue to grow. Grain flows have been variable with weather and policy dynamics that have not produced a consistent directional signal.
The net of the demand-side factors should have produced a softer rate environment than the market has actually delivered. The major industry forecasts published through late 2024 generally had dry bulk rates in 2025 below where they actually came out, with the consensus underestimate concentrated in the larger vessel segments where the demand-side factors should have been most consequential.
The disconnect between the demand-side expectation and the actual rate performance has been one of the principal questions on the dry bulk desks through 2025, with the answer increasingly coming back to supply-side discipline in the bulker fleet.
What the supply-side discipline looks like
The bulker fleet supply growth through 2024 and 2025 has been considerably more moderate than the orderbook deliveries alone would suggest. The principal supply-discipline factors have included scrapping at higher levels than the demand picture would have predicted, slow-steaming that has reduced effective fleet capacity, and delays in newbuilding orders that have constrained the longer-term supply growth.
The scrapping levels for older bulkers have been elevated through 2024 and 2025, with the principal drivers being the regulatory pressure from the IMO's carbon-intensity framework and the operational economics of older vessels in an environment of high bunker prices. Older capesize and panamax bulkers that would have continued operating in a less regulation-pressured environment have been going to scrapping yards at rates that have meaningfully constrained the effective fleet supply.
The slow-steaming pattern has been one of the principal effective-capacity reduction mechanisms. Average operating speeds for the major bulker segments are down measurably from the levels that were typical in the mid-2010s, with the speed reduction reflecting both bunker-cost economics and CII compliance considerations. The effective capacity reduction from the speed reduction is substantial in aggregate and has been one of the principal supports for the rate environment.
The newbuilding orderbook for bulkers has been thinner than the demand picture and the existing fleet age profile would have suggested. The principal restraining factors have been the regulatory uncertainty around the alternative-fuel pathways, the capital-cost discipline that the major owner-operators have been maintaining, and the experience of recent newbuilding waves that have produced periods of overcapacity in specific segments.
The capesize segment and the iron ore trades
The capesize segment is the largest of the principal bulker categories and is most exposed to the iron ore and major-bulk trades. The capesize rates through 2025 have been firmer than the iron ore volume picture would have suggested, principally because of the supply-side discipline factors and because of voyage-distance effects that have increased ton-mile demand even when the underlying tonne demand has been less robust.
The voyage-distance effects have been a meaningful contributor to the rate dynamics. The shift in iron ore sourcing patterns toward longer-distance supply routes — including the buildup of African ore exports to Asian markets — has produced ton-mile demand growth that exceeds the tonne demand growth. The capesize fleet that serves the longer-distance routes is correspondingly under more demand pressure than the tonne figures alone would suggest.
The Brazilian iron ore export buildout has continued through 2025, with capacity expansion projects working through and providing ton-mile demand support that is one of the principal underpinnings of the capesize rate environment. The Australian flows have been more stable in volume but have remained the principal volume base. The African flows — Guinea principally — have been the growth area for the segment and the principal source of the ton-mile demand growth.
The capesize period rates through 2025 worked up to levels that several years ago would have been considered firm-market levels, with one-year period rates closing 2025 above USD 22,000 per day on modern eco-design tonnage. The spot market has been variable but generally supportive of those period levels, with seasonal patterns that have been consistent with the historical norms for the segment.
The panamax segment and the coal and grain trades
The panamax and kamsarmax segment is exposed principally to the coal trades and the grain trades, with substantial additional exposure to minor bulks and to intra-Asian flows that have been growing. The panamax rates through 2025 have been firmer than the demand picture would have suggested, with similar supply-side discipline factors at work and with specific demand-side supports in the coal and grain trades.
The coal trades have been one of the more interesting commercial pictures in dry bulk. The energy-transition policy environment has been pressuring coal demand in some markets while the actual operational coal-fired generation has been growing in several Asian markets in ways that have supported continued thermal coal flow. The Indonesian thermal coal exports have been a particular support. The Australian metallurgical coal flows have been stable on the volume side and supportive on the rate side because of the longer-distance routings to several of the principal customer markets.
The grain trades have been variable with the weather and the policy dynamics in the major exporter countries. The South American grain export flows in 2025 came in at levels that provided meaningful seasonal rate support during the principal export periods, with the Brazilian and Argentine flows together being one of the principal demand supports for the panamax segment.
The panamax period rates closed 2025 above USD 16,000 per day on modern eco-design tonnage, with the levels having held through what was expected to be a softer environment based on the demand fundamentals alone.
The smaller segments and the minor bulk trades
The supramax, ultramax, and handymax-handysize segments have been more variable through 2025, with the smaller-vessel rates more directly exposed to the specific commodity flows that the smaller vessels serve. The minor bulk trades — bauxite, alumina, steel products, scrap, fertilizers, and various agricultural products — have been doing different things in different segments.
The bauxite and alumina flows have been growing, with the African and Australian flows together providing demand support that has been one of the principal underpinnings of the supramax and ultramax rate environment. The steel products and scrap flows have been more variable with the global steel-cycle dynamics. The fertilizers and agricultural flows have shown the kind of regional variability that the segments have historically produced.
The smaller-vessel period rates have been firmer than the demand fundamentals alone would have predicted, with the supply-side discipline and the trade-pattern dynamics together providing structural support. The handysize rates have been one of the more notable performers, with the segment's flexibility advantage in serving smaller ports and specialized cargo flows providing rate support even in periods when the larger segments have been softer.
What the chartering desks are watching into 2026
The chartering desks I talk to are positioning for 2026 with a generally constructive view on the rate environment but with attention to several specific risk factors. The supply-side discipline that has supported 2025 rates is expected to continue, but the orderbook deliveries through 2026 and into 2027 are substantial enough that the supply picture is less unambiguously supportive than it has been through 2024 and 2025.
The demand-side picture is the more uncertain side. The Chinese steel and construction demand recovery has been working through more gradually than the optimistic forecasts of early 2025 had suggested. The Indian demand growth has been encouraging but is not on its own sufficient to drive the demand-side picture. The trade-pattern dynamics that have supported ton-mile demand growth are expected to continue but at a more moderate pace than 2025.
The regulatory environment continues to be a substantial overhang for the bulker market. The CII compliance pressure, the developing market-based measures, and the alternative-fuel pathway questions all factor into the operational and investment decisions that the major bulker owners are making. The implications for the fleet supply over the next several years are that the supply-side discipline that has supported the 2025 rate environment is likely to continue, with the regulatory factors as one of the principal contributors.
The view from the desks
The dry bulk market has been performing better than the demand fundamentals would have suggested, the supply-side discipline has been the principal explanation, and the operating environment has produced rate levels that the segments have been able to absorb operationally. The chartering desks have been doing their work effectively in an environment that has rewarded discipline over capacity chasing.
The 2026 outlook is constructive on the period view but cautious on the spot view, with attention to the seasonal patterns and the specific commodity flow dynamics that will drive the rate environment month to month. The work for the chartering managers will be in the segment-specific positioning rather than in the top-down market call, and the desks that do that work well will continue to differentiate themselves regardless of where the headline indices end up.
The dry bulk market is the part of shipping that has historically rewarded the operators who knew their segments well, who managed their fleet carefully, and who positioned for the demand patterns that the underlying commodity flows produce. The current environment has been rewarding that kind of discipline, and the desks that have been doing the work properly have been delivering for their owners and their charterers. Worth more attention than it has been getting in the broader trade-press coverage.
